Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.094801 0.106007 0.117627 0.130547 0.144481 0.159026 0.175326
2024-10-27 0.075899 0.092196 0.110091 0.131065 0.154835 0.180804 0.211184
2024-11-03 0.067541 0.088053 0.111680 0.140573 0.174614 0.213110 0.259591
2024-11-10 0.056558 0.079035 0.106147 0.140646 0.182747 0.231836 0.292753
2024-11-17 0.049006 0.072969 0.103093 0.142775 0.192675 0.252356 0.328091
2024-11-24 0.042245 0.066912 0.099175 0.143071 0.199796 0.269204 0.359034
2024-12-01 0.039610 0.065954 0.101515 0.151130 0.216597 0.298084 0.405100
2024-12-08 0.037373 0.065200 0.103869 0.159062 0.233252 0.326995 0.451678
2024-12-15 0.033227 0.061136 0.101209 0.159860 0.240306 0.343607 0.482869
2024-12-22 0.028502 0.055620 0.095968 0.156620 0.241589 0.352532 0.504176
2024-12-29 0.026824 0.054682 0.097224 0.162413 0.255114 0.377572 0.546564
2025-01-05 0.024788 0.052912 0.097042 0.166010 0.265579 0.398659 0.584066
2025-01-12 0.022466 0.050573 0.096058 0.168726 0.275404 0.419821 0.623110
2025-01-19 0.020214 0.048113 0.094726 0.170877 0.284554 0.440407 0.662031
2025-01-26 0.020159 0.049658 0.099911 0.183114 0.308555 0.481822 0.729670
2025-02-02 0.017888 0.046737 0.097525 0.183510 0.315282 0.499522 0.765615
2025-02-09 0.016269 0.044862 0.096708 0.186235 0.325407 0.522051 0.808417
2025-02-16 0.014467 0.042348 0.094563 0.186654 0.331989 0.539624 0.844610
2025-02-23 0.014210 0.043076 0.098152 0.196465 0.352947 0.577891 0.909890
2025-03-02 0.013934 0.043719 0.101585 0.206083 0.373769 0.616239 0.975734
2025-03-09 0.012565 0.041684 0.099928 0.207054 0.381168 0.635250 1.014625
2025-03-16 0.010761 0.038335 0.095533 0.203137 0.380761 0.642843 1.037479
2025-03-23 0.010346 0.038318 0.097489 0.210144 0.397626 0.675849 1.096624